- Listing inventory is down. Now, that could just be that we are all too busy working with buyers to concentrate on getting new listings...or it could simply mean that many sellers have decided to keep their properties off the market until the over-correction of pricing stabilizes. Whatever the reason, the lower inventory and higher pendings, is establishing a trend that we have not seen in years. In February 2010 in Naples there were 1,633 new Listings that came on the market. In February 2011 only 1,362! ~About a 17% decrease. Those new listings last year that were priced over $1 million numbered 180, and those listed below $500,000 numbered 1,229. This year, February 2011, of those new listings taken, 156 were priced at or above $1 million, while only 1,004 were listed below $500,000! This translates to fewer listings going active in both the higher & lower price points. Those that had been listed above $1 million last year are now feeling the downward pressure and are being priced below $1 million. The lower priced listings continue to be the most popular range in both pending and closed sales. ~and, The middle prices are beginning to see an increase in activity. I call this a trickle up effect. I think we will slowly begin to see an absorption of the better, well priced listings in the lower price range over the course of the next 90 days. Emphasis on well priced! I also believe that we will continue to see an increase in sales in the luxury market--But, since a much lower percentage of those listings are going under contract, they must be much more competitive with pricing in order to take advantage of what's left of the peak selling season!
- Overall Pendings in February 2010 were 1,188 compared to 1,221 in February 2011. Approximately a 3% increase...compound that with a 17% decrease in inventory! There are pockets in Naples where neighborhoods have seen a more substantial increase in sales then 3%. Those homes and condos listed at or above $1 million had 80 listings pend in 2010 and 81 of the 1,221 in 2011 were listed over $1 million. In 2010 February saw 988 residences listed under $500,000. go under contract in Naples, while last month the pending sales of listings priced below $500,000 were 1,038. Approximately a 5% increase.
- Closed Sales were almost identical in Naples MLS: In February 2010, 570 residential listings closed. In February 2011 there were 571 closings. 31 of the 570 in 2010 were listed at or above $1 million. February 2011 40 luxury properties closed, including a home in Port Royal which was listed at $13,900,000 and closed for $10,500,000. Luxury home closings represented 7% of the closings in February. In February 2010 there were 482 closings listed below $500,000 vs. 469 that closed in February 2011. The lower price range is driving the market.
Monday, February 28, 2011
Wednesday, February 23, 2011
Tuesday, February 22, 2011
- The present population of the state of Florida is approximately 18 million. This is projected to double in the next 20 years.
- If the pattern of new jobs created in Naples, as documented in the past 20 years, were to stay on its same pattern, not withstanding the short term fluctuation of 2008-2010, jobs in Naples will also double in the next 20 years.
- The "normal" migration to Florida, particularly the huge number of baby boomers, among them the more comfortably wealthy, will begin to increase again in 2011. [more people left Florida than entered in both 2008 & 2009-and 2010 was virtually even.]
- Newly built inventory in South Florida is at a 40 year low. New housing start permits in Collier County numbered about 1,000 per year for the last 3 years vs. an average of over 6,000+ in the previous 4 years.
- Currently, the cost of constructing a new home is higher than buying a newer resale. Buyers wanting newer homes will have to buy resales in most cases.
- Upcoming tighter mortgage regulations as well as the expectancy of home loan rates increasing in 2012 will prohibit some buyers without cash from purchasing.
- Nationwide, there have been no meaningful changes in Home Price Trends, they have gone 'sideways' for approximately 12 months. However there are some "wildcard" markets that may even see a 10-15% increase in prices after the 2008-2010 over-correction. Naples fits into this category!
Overall, the outlook was very bright for Florida, and specifically a recovery in Southwest Florida! Dr. Yun also touched on the influx of foreign buyers coming to Florida, consumer confidence levels, unemployment, business investments and commercial real estate, mortgage defaults and governments bail-outs.
Dr. Yun ended the seminar with two quotes, and this discussion: The countries in the world that prosper are those which encourage and support home ownership. He spoke from the heart of his own memories of his birth country, South Korea--the fact that the one true thing that separated the ideology of his homeland and North Korea was home ownership. He compared this to a current news maker and mentioned the fact that 90% of Egyptians do not have title to their homes. He said he believed there had been two 'transformational' Presidents in our modern history...and these were the quotes:
"A nation of homeowners is unconquerable." ~FDR
"We will preserve the part of the American dream which mortgage interest deduction symbolizes." ~Ronald Reagan
Thank you for your time. Make it a great day,
The Naples Real Estate Blogger